MacroJapan's Carry Trade Unwind Isn't Over
The August 2024 yen carry trade unwind was not a one-off event. It was the first tremor. The Bank of Japan is still the largest buyer of Japanese government bonds and the second-largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. Every time the yen rallies, that position becomes a source of forced selling. The next tremor is closer than the market is positioned for.