Global macro economics and monetary policy
Strategy stopped behaving like a corporate treasury years ago. In 2026 it has stopped pretending. The financing pattern, the holding policy, the public messaging, and the way credit markets price the paper now match a sovereign wealth fund more closely than they match a company. The implications run further than most institutional investors are willing to say out loud.
The August 2024 yen carry trade unwind was not a one-off event. It was the first tremor. The Bank of Japan is still the largest buyer of Japanese government bonds and the second-largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. Every time the yen rallies, that position becomes a source of forced selling. The next tremor is closer than the market is positioned for.
The Fed has been signaling rate cuts for six months. The long end of the curve will not cooperate. When short rates fall and long rates rise, the bond market is telling you the central bank has lost control of the part that actually matters. That is happening now, and it is bullish for exactly one asset.
The Fed is trapped between war-driven inflation and a slowing economy. Rate cuts fuel inflation. Rate hikes kill growth. Every historical stagflation episode has produced a flight to hard assets - and Bitcoin is now on that list.
Bitcoin has lost 45% since its October high, with the Iran war accelerating the selloff. But every major armed conflict since Bitcoin's inception has produced a generational buying window - usually within 60 days of the first shots.
Gold hit an all-time high above $3,200 in Q1 2026 while Bitcoin fell 27% from $94K to $69K. Both are supposed to be 'hard money.' The divergence reveals what the market actually believes Bitcoin is - and isn't - in a crisis.
Q1 2026: a Fed that refused to cut, a dollar that refused to weaken, and a global liquidity expansion that refused to wait for either. The quarter in full.
Global M2 shows the highest correlation with Bitcoin's price among all macro variables tested. The money printer dictates the trajectory - and it's running again.
Ceasefire rumors sent oil below $100 and Bitcoin above $71K in hours. But Iran denies talks, derivatives show thin conviction. Relief rally or trap?
February PPI surged 0.7% MoM - more than double expectations. Core wholesale inflation hit 3.9%. The March FOMC dot plot now projects just one cut in 2026.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum. Oil spiked above $112, Bitcoin fell to $68K. The 89% S&P correlation confirmed: BTC is a risk asset.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75%, slashing its 2026 rate cut forecast to one. Oil above $108, PCE at 2.7% - the liquidity catalyst bulls counted on has been delayed.