stock-to-flow

Two Years Since the 2024 Halving: The Supply Shock Worked. The Cycle Calendar Didn't.

The fourth Bitcoin halving turns two on Saturday. The protocol delivered exactly what it promised: a clean cut to new issuance and a stress test for the mining industry. The four-year cycle theory built around it did not deliver what it promised. The gap between those two statements is the real legacy of 2024.