4 poststagged with “market-cycle”
Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle has been the most reliable pattern in crypto. But the 2024 halving produced no parabolic blow-off top, no 80% crash, and no altseason. The cycle didn't repeat — and the reasons why suggest it never will again.
Bitcoin entered 2026 at $94K and exits Q1 at $69K. A 27% drawdown that reshuffled holders, stress-tested miners, and revealed institutional conviction vs retail retreat.
Bitcoin retests $69,000 — the exact 2021 all-time high. What was once the ceiling is now the floor. If it holds, the macro structure survives.
The fourth halving cut the block reward to 3.125 BTC. One year in: 164,250 fewer BTC created, miners adapted, and the network barely noticed.