Tagged: macro

MacroKevin Warsh's Fed Turns to Prices as August Payrolls Rebound

American employers likely added 55,000 jobs in August, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists published August 29, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1 percent.

MacroThe Statist Peril of Techno-Asset Inflation

The Mises Institute published a Mises Wire essay this month arguing that the most dangerous asset bubbles in history share a specific signature: cheap money arriving at the same moment as a genuine technological…

MacroCooling Producer Prices Push the S&P 500 Past 7,800 Intraday

Stocks closed higher across the board on Thursday, August 13, 2026, after the July producer price index came in softer than economists expected and crude oil slid.

OpinionAlligator Alcatraz Costs $1M a Day. Hard Money Would Have Stopped It.

DHS is reportedly weighing whether to shut down the Florida Everglades immigration detention facility known informally as Alligator Alcatraz because it costs more than $1 million a day to run. The story will be filed as a fiscal squabble between agencies. The deeper story is what happens when a government can spend without natural constraint, and how a hard money standard would have killed the project before the first contract was signed. Fiat is not the neutral medium people imagine. It is the silent subsidy that funds the indefensible.

MacroSaylor Is Now a Sovereign Wealth Fund. He's Not Even Hiding It Anymore.

Strategy stopped behaving like a corporate treasury years ago. In 2026 it has stopped pretending. The financing pattern, the holding policy, the public messaging, and the way credit markets price the paper now match a sovereign wealth fund more closely than they match a company. The implications run further than most institutional investors are willing to say out loud.

MacroJapan's Carry Trade Unwind Isn't Over

The August 2024 yen carry trade unwind was not a one-off event. It was the first tremor. The Bank of Japan is still the largest buyer of Japanese government bonds and the second-largest foreign holder of US Treasuries. Every time the yen rallies, that position becomes a source of forced selling. The next tremor is closer than the market is positioned for.

MacroThe 10-Year Yield Is Telling You Something

The Fed has been signaling rate cuts for six months. The long end of the curve will not cooperate. When short rates fall and long rates rise, the bond market is telling you the central bank has lost control of the part that actually matters. That is happening now, and it is bullish for exactly one asset.

MacroThe Fed's Impossible Choice: Why Stagflation Is Bitcoin's Best Bull Case

The Fed is trapped between war-driven inflation and a slowing economy. Rate cuts fuel inflation. Rate hikes kill growth. Every historical stagflation episode has produced a flight to hard assets - and Bitcoin is now on that list.

MacroTrump's Iran War Is Crushing Bitcoin - But History Says Wars Are Buying Opportunities

Bitcoin has lost 45% since its October high, with the Iran war accelerating the selloff. But every major armed conflict since Bitcoin's inception has produced a generational buying window - usually within 60 days of the first shots.

MacroGold at $3,200 and Bitcoin at $69K: Why the Divergence Matters

Gold hit an all-time high above $3,200 in Q1 2026 while Bitcoin fell 27% from $94K to $69K. Both are supposed to be 'hard money.' The divergence reveals what the market actually believes Bitcoin is - and isn't - in a crisis.

OpinionThe Four-Year Cycle Is Dead. Here's What Replaced It.

Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle has been the most reliable pattern in crypto. But the 2024 halving produced no parabolic blow-off top, no 80% crash, and no altseason. The cycle didn't repeat - and the reasons why suggest it never will again.

MacroQ1 2026 Macro Scorecard: The Liquidity Pivot Nobody Expected

Q1 2026: a Fed that refused to cut, a dollar that refused to weaken, and a global liquidity expansion that refused to wait for either. The quarter in full.