7 poststagged with “macro”
Bitcoin has lost 45% since its October high, with the Iran war accelerating the selloff. But every major armed conflict since Bitcoin's inception has produced a generational buying window — usually within 60 days of the first shots.
Gold hit an all-time high above $3,200 in Q1 2026 while Bitcoin fell 27% from $94K to $69K. Both are supposed to be 'hard money.' The divergence reveals what the market actually believes Bitcoin is — and isn't — in a crisis.
Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle has been the most reliable pattern in crypto. But the 2024 halving produced no parabolic blow-off top, no 80% crash, and no altseason. The cycle didn't repeat — and the reasons why suggest it never will again.
Q1 2026: a Fed that refused to cut, a dollar that refused to weaken, and a global liquidity expansion that refused to wait for either. The quarter in full.
Global M2 shows the highest correlation with Bitcoin's price among all macro variables tested. The money printer dictates the trajectory — and it's running again.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75%, slashing its 2026 rate cut forecast to one. Oil above $108, PCE at 2.7% — the liquidity catalyst bulls counted on has been delayed.
DXY climbed to 108 as global capital flows toward US assets. The milkshake theory predicted this — but its implications for Bitcoin are more nuanced than either side admits.