6 poststagged with “inflation”
The Fed has been signaling rate cuts for six months. The long end of the curve will not cooperate. When short rates fall and long rates rise, the bond market is telling you the central bank has lost control of the part that actually matters. That is happening now, and it is bullish for exactly one asset.
The Fed is trapped between war-driven inflation and a slowing economy. Rate cuts fuel inflation. Rate hikes kill growth. Every historical stagflation episode has produced a flight to hard assets - and Bitcoin is now on that list.
Global M2 shows the highest correlation with Bitcoin's price among all macro variables tested. The money printer dictates the trajectory - and it's running again.
February PPI surged 0.7% MoM - more than double expectations. Core wholesale inflation hit 3.9%. The March FOMC dot plot now projects just one cut in 2026.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum. Oil spiked above $112, Bitcoin fell to $68K. The 89% S&P correlation confirmed: BTC is a risk asset.
The Fed held at 3.50–3.75%, slashing its 2026 rate cut forecast to one. Oil above $108, PCE at 2.7% - the liquidity catalyst bulls counted on has been delayed.